CS2 ‘Trade-Up’ Update Triggers $2 Billion Market Crash as Knife Prices Plummet

Valve's October 23, 2025, update for Counter-Strike 2 introduced knife and glove crafting, causing a historic $2 billion skin market crash. High-tier knife prices fell up to 70% while Covert skins surged.

Valve dropped a bombshell update for Counter-Strike 2 on October 23, 2025, and it has sent shockwaves through the game’s multi-billion dollar skin economy. In a first for the franchise, a new update allows players to craft knives and gloves.

The move instantly vaporized nearly $2 billion in market value, plunging the total CS2 market cap from a record $6 billion to $4.1 billion in mere hours. High-tier knife prices have collapsed by 20% to 70%, while previously undesirable Covert-grade skins have skyrocketed.

The Revolutionary Trade-Up System

The update fundamentally alters Counter-Strike’s long-standing skin acquisition system by adding Collection-grade items to the Trade-Up Contract.

Previously, knives and gloves were the ultimate rare items, obtainable only by opening cases with a roughly 1-in-385 chance. Now, players can trade five normal Collection-grade skins for a knife or gloves from that same collection. The same logic applies to StatTrak™ items: five StatTrak™ Collection-grade items can be traded up for a StatTrak™ knife.

This change democratizes access to high-tier items but upends the economy built on their scarcity. Newly crafted items are still subject to the standard seven-day trade restriction before they can be fully traded or sold on the Steam Market.

“From the long-term health of the game, this is the right direction,” one Reddit user commented. “This makes me believe Valve is actually moving in a direction that benefits the average player, not the market whales.”

Market Meltdown: Knives Crash, Crafting Skins Surge

The market’s immediate reaction was unprecedented. Popular Covert-grade skins—now the primary “ingredients” for crafting—saw massive price hikes, with some items jumping over 1,000% in value in the first 24 hours. According to data from Price Empire, a Factory New P90 | Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) saw its price jump by approximately 67%.

Conversely, the high-value knives that once defined the market experienced a severe crash.

  • A Factory New Karambit | Doppler plummeted 32% to around $740.
  • A Factory New Butterfly Knife | Fade dropped 28% to $690.

Ryan Wyatt, the former head of gaming at YouTube, argued the crash reflects a broader issue of confidence, not just a simple supply shock. “I think this is actually less about the supply shock and more that [Valve] can and will make unilateral development decisions that can wipe out billions in market cap,” Wyatt stated.

On a lighter note, the update also reintroduced the beloved Retake game mode to official matchmaking servers, supporting Defusal Group Alpha and Delta maps, after it was absent from the initial CS2 launch.

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